The Simulated Debris Record
To show the effect over a service life, the KasperAero white paper includes a simulation. Its key inputs come from the independent laboratory tests, chiefly how much debris each detector needs before it bridges.
The simulation follows one gearbox through one debris history. It then shows how that same history would appear on each type of device, had it been the one installed. Each device sees the same debris under the same conditions and is given the same capture efficiency, so the only difference is what each one reports. The chip detectors run on a 28 V supply. Their current stays at zero until the gap bridges, and each chip light means the detector is removed, cleaned and refitted.
Normal wear sheds a steady stream of fine flakes for the whole record. At 1,150 flight hours a bearing begins to spall, and from then on it also sheds occasional large chips of about 1 to 3 mg each. The figure follows the two devices that capture best, the disc-style detector and the NZMS.
The same simulated debris history on an NZMS (blue) and a disc-style chip detector (green). The NZMS reading jumps with each large chip, so the chip is seen as soon as it lands, and it is seen to be large. The disc-style detector turns on its chip light for each large chip, the same light it gave nine times for normal fuzz. Simulation.
During normal wear, the disc-style detector trips nine times. Each is a nuisance trip, because the gearbox has no fault yet. A two-prong detector, given the same history, trips twice.
Both devices catch the first large chip, at 1,200 flight hours. The NZMS reading jumps by 2.0 mg in one hour, about 40 times its normal hourly capture. That one reading shows that a chip has arrived and that it is large. The disc-style detector turns on its chip light in the same hour. The light is identical to the nine before it, so the indication alone cannot say whether the gap holds fuzz or a spall chip. Only removing the detector and examining the debris tells them apart.
A single record could be favorable or unfavorable by chance. The white paper therefore ran its simulation 1,000 times, with random particle arrivals, captures and bridging amounts. In those runs wear accelerates gradually after the onset, with no single large chip, so any warning has to come from the rise in the debris rate:
| Over 1,000 simulated histories | Two-prong | Disc-style | NZMS |
| Nuisance trips during normal wear (median) | 2 | 9 (8 to 11) | 0 |
| First warning after wear accelerates (median) | 83 FH (32 to 131) | 31 FH (9 to 50) | 28 FH (22 to 36) |
| False alarms during normal wear | Every trip during normal wear is a false alarm | 0 of 1,000 |
| Can the warning be told apart from a nuisance trip? | No | No | Yes, it is a change in the debris rate |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile. FH is flight hours. The NZMS alerted before the first two-prong chip light in 90% of the histories, and before the first disc-style chip light in 54%.